Oh dear, 2024 has also been pretty busy, hence the delay for an update until end 2023. This time around, I have only shown the “blend” scenarios, with ILGs reintroduced. The off-market return is no longer being varied (it was a step too far). The end-2022 results have been retained for the record so that other periods can be compared.

Jon  19 Nov 2024

Well, 2023 has been busier than I expected, hence the delay for an update until end 2022. Apart from extending the statistics, I have also looked at varying the expected off-market return and the charts have been updated.

Jon  17 Oct 2023

Yes, I have updated until end 2021 but it’s taken me a while. This time, I’ve added an  extra page about LDI and extra material covering “excess caution” and “annuity fund exhaustion”. However, the number of experiences has been reduced from 6 to 4 and I am no longer including index-linked gilts.

Jon   29 Nov 2022

A couple of days ago, I accidentally destroyed the charts, which have now been restored. A slide deck with those charts has been added for those who would prefer that. Yes, I shall be updating until end 2021.

Jon    23 Dec 2021

Since May 2020, when the website was updated until the end of 2018, I have now developed it until the end of 2019. Apart from using HTML5 charts (instead of Flash) and commenting upon the TPR 2020 DB pension schemes consultation, I have also widened the range of financial assumption experiences.

Jon    03 Dec 2020

Arising out of correspondence in The Actuary (UK), I realised that I had not given enough prominence to the incredibly heavy pension burden borne by UK private sector employers; that has been amended, as has the navigation. Yes, the 2019 sums are going ahead, as is the conversion of the charts from Flash to HTML5.

Jon    11 May 2020

During 2019, I presented to 7 different actuarial audiences, the most recent being to SIAS on 03 December 2019 (read alone PPT here). As I was focused upon updating the sums and the conclusions drawn, this website is being updated to reflect financial statistics until the end of 2018, many months later than originally intended. Hopefully, updating until the end of 2019 will be faster.

Jon    20 January 2020
 

After less than a month, I have updated the website in order to allow for an extended "long-term" section (with a new “risk premium” chart) and to refine the long-term return estimates; there will be more.

Jon    22  August 2018
 

This website was originally launched in July 2015. Since then, I have used a newer, wider (and narrower) dataset plus some of my personal DWP DB Green Paper submission in May 2017. Although I had actually updated this site on 11 July 2018, I have since realised that there are newer ONS MQ5 numbers (used below in “funding_nightmare”).

Jon  22  July  2018